| Team | Country | Stage | Coeff. | P(in league phase) | P(drawn v Sunderland) |
|---|
Most likely pot for every team that might make the league phase (pot = seeding by UEFA club coefficient; percentages are how often the team qualifies in simulation).
What this is
Sunderland enter the 2026/27 Europa League league phase directly (Premier League 7th). On 28 August 2026 UEFA draws each of the 36 clubs against eight opponents — two from each seeding pot, at most two per country, and none from the club's own country.
Where the numbers come from
The league phase is 13 direct entrants, 12 winners of the Europa League play-off round, and 11 clubs dropping down from Champions League qualifying. This site keeps the full qualifying brackets of both competitions and, after every result, runs a Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 runs) of everything that is still open: remaining legs (win chances from UEFA club coefficients, adjusted for first-leg scores), draws not yet made, pot allocation, and finally the league-phase draw itself with its country constraints.
P(drawn v Sunderland) is the share of simulations in which that club ends up among Sunderland's eight opponents. English clubs show 0% — clubs from the same association cannot meet in the league phase.
Data
Results update automatically from API-Football on matchdays. Structure, coefficients and entry lists are seeded from UEFA/Wikipedia. This is a hobby tool — always check uefa.com for anything official.